Rising raw material costs boost black futures prices
Recently, the prices of "ferrous" metal futures represented by iron ore and rebar have risen sharply. On April 26, the main iron ore contract 2109 rose to 1166 yuan/ton, the highest increase was more than 6%, and the day closed up 4.33%, setting a new high again; the main contract 2110 for rebar and the main contract 2110 for hot-rolling also exceeded the highest increase. 4%, and hit a recent high. Looking at the overall trend of related major contracts, the price of hot coils has risen by about 30% compared to the beginning of the year, and the prices of iron ore and rebar have also risen by more than 20%.
The increase in ferrous metal futures prices is not unrelated to demand growth. The spokesperson of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Huang Libin previously stated that since the beginning of this year, the prices of major products in the steel, non-ferrous, petrochemical and other industries have continued the upward trend at the end of last year, and non-ferrous prices have risen quite sharply. The price of raw materials has risen sharply due to the following reasons: First, the rising cost of raw materials has promoted the general increase in the price of bulk commodities; Second, the recovery of downstream industry production has formed a tight supply and demand situation; Third, the financial attributes such as non-ferrous metals and some chemical products are prominent. Loose monetary policy and better global economic expectations have boosted the activity of global futures trading, and short-term speculation in the financial market also has a significant amplifying effect on price increases.
Ge Xin, deputy director of the Lange Steel Research Center, also pointed out that as the global economy gradually recovers, the demand for steel will continue to grow, and the increase in steel demand will surely drive the growth of iron ore demand. According to data released by the China Iron and Steel Association, the country produced 271 million tons of crude steel in the first quarter, an increase of 15.6% year-on-year; pig iron produced 221 million tons, an increase of 8.0% year-on-year; steel produced 329 million tons, an increase of 22.5% year-on-year. Guantong Futures also said that at this stage, the profit of steel mills continues to expand, and the demand for high-grade ore is increasing, which supports the price of iron ore; while the main driver of rebar prices is demand and production restrictions. Demand continues to improve under the background of peak seasons.
The rise in the price of "black" futures also boosted the performance of related listed companies in the first quarter. The iron ore-related listed company Jinling Mining net profit attributable to its parent in the first quarter increased by 212.72% year-on-year, and Hegang Resources is expected to increase its net profit attributable to its parent in the first quarter by 142.21% to 207.68%. In the first quarter, Hangzhou Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., a listed company in general steel, increased its net profit attributable to its parent by 151.7% year-on-year, Bayi Iron & Steel turned losses in the first quarter, and Shougang Co., Ltd. is expected to increase its net profit attributable to its parent by 406% to 457% in the first quarter.
Regarding the follow-up trend of the "black line", Zhongzhou Futures believes that at present, domestic demand is rising, overseas demand is also rising, and iron ore prices are still running at a high level. However, with the end of overseas resumption of production, the later marginal drive will be insufficient. Regarding the trend of rebar, hot coil and other steel products, Wang Jing, an analyst at the Lange Steel Network Research Center, believes that the current market is facing negative factors such as weakened economic expansion expectations and enhanced policy control expectations. If only domestic demand is driven, prices will increase in the later period. Space is already relatively limited, and strict implementation of the supply-side production restriction policy, rising costs, and the surge in overseas markets have brought some support. Positive and negative factors are intertwined, the uncertainty of the steel market has increased, and the momentum for continued sharp rises is weak, and the trend may remain high in the short term.
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